[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 11 issued 2330 UT on 25 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 26 10:30:47 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours,
the largest event being a C1 flare at 25/2019 from region 1330
(N80E31). Solar activity is expected to remain Low over the next
3 days. The solar wind speed varied between 400km/s and 550km/s.
IMF Bz varied between +/-20nT for much of the UT day, but has been
mostly neutral for the last 4 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 54333211
Darwin 16 53333222
Townsville 17 54333221
Learmonth 16 53333222
Norfolk Island 15 54322222
Camden 16 54333211
Canberra 8 43222100
Hobart 14 54322111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 21 4454320-
Casey 29 6544321-
Mawson 41 6743322-
Davis 40 57633322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gnangara 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 66 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23 2020 0157
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 7 Quiet
27 Oct 5 Quiet
28 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions continued to be influenced by
the earlier arrival of a CME shock. For the first half of 25-Oct
UT, Major Storm periods were experienced in Antarctica, with
Minor Storm to Active periods over much of the Australian region.
Subsequently, conditions moderated to Unsettled and later Quiet.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days. On
28-Oct, some Unsettled periods are possible due to a returning
southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced to 45% during local day,
Enhanced to 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some MUF enhancements early in the UT day in Northern
Aus region. Poor ionospheric support in Antarctic region. MUFs
mostly near predicted monthly values elsewhere, with some mild
depressions. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for
the next 3 days, with some depressions at high latitudes on 28-Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 74400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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