[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 11 issued 2331 UT on 26 Oct 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 27 10:31:10 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 132/86

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Oct             28 Oct             29 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours, 
the largest event being a C1 flare at 26/1001 from region 1324 
(N12W38). An associated CME could be mildly geoeffective around 
30-31 Oct, based on analysis of available imagery. Solar activity 
is expected to remain Low over the next 3 days. The solar wind 
speed declined slightly from ~500km/s to vary between 400-450km/s 
over the last 2 hours. IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT over 
the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to increase slightly 
from 28-Oct due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22210112
      Darwin               4   12210112
      Townsville           4   21211112
      Learmonth            3   22110111
      Norfolk Island       4   22111112
      Camden               3   11210112
      Canberra             1   11100001
      Hobart               3   22210101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     3   12110111
      Casey               22   55521223
      Mawson               9   33311213
      Davis               11   34322222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        27
           Planetary             33   6653 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Oct     5    Quiet
28 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian 
region. Unsettled to Minor Storm conditions were observed for 
the early part of the UT day in Antarctica, declining to mostly 
Quiet levels later. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for 
27-Oct. On the following two days, some Unsettled periods are 
possible due to a small southern hemisphere coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Oct    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      SE Aust/NZ depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Oct    85    Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressed MUFS were observed over the south-east Australia/NZ 
region until around 07UT. HF conditions are expected to be mostly 
normal for the next 3 days, with some depressions at high latitudes 
on 28-29 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 466 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:   143000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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