[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 11 issued 2349 UT on 24 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 25 10:49:15 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
+++ CORRECTED COPY - SECTIONS 1B, 2A +++
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to be Low over the next 3 days. The
solar wind speed remained around 350km/s for most of the UT day,
increasing to ~500km/s with a strong shock observed at at 1749UT,
probably due to the arrival of the 22/0058 CME. IMF Bz was mostly
neutral until the shock, subsequently varying between +/-20nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 21210145
Darwin 15 21211255
Townsville 16 21221255
Learmonth 16 22221255
Norfolk Island 10 21210244
Camden 12 21210145
Canberra 8 11200044
Hobart 13 21310145
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Macquarie Island 7 11110134
Casey 30 24632355
Mawson 22 33410364
Davis 22 23422264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gnangara 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Hobart 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0001 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 18 Active to Minor Storm
26 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over
the Australian with some Unsettled to Active periods at High
latitudes. In the IPS magnetometer data for 24-Oct, a weak (26nT)
impulse was observed at 1831UT. Since then, Active to Minor Storm
levels have been experienced over much of the Australian region,
with Major Storm periods in Antarctica. Similar conditions are
expected to continue during much of 25-Oct, becoming more settled
thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the forecast period, with degraded conditions at high latitudes
for some periods during 25-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced over the past 24 hours. HF conditions are expected
to be mostly normal for the next 3 days, though effects from
the CME shock arrival at 18UT might degrade high-latitude HF
conditions at times on 25-Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 290 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 13800 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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