[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 11 issued 2345 UT on 22 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 23 10:45:50 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1118UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: There were a number of flares over the reporting period;
most notably a long duration M1.3 flare from region 1314(N29W93)
peaking around 1110UT. LASCO and STEREO imagery showed an associated
CME, it is not expected to be geoeffective. A disappearing filament
was observed in the North West quadrant around 0058UT. Analysis
of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggested that a CME associated
with the filament is expected to be geoeffective about 24-25
October. New region 1330(N04E66) was numbered today. Solar activity
is expected to be at low levels with M-class flares likely over
the forecast period. Solar wind parameters were undisturbed over
the last 24 hours. These parameters are expected to become disturbed
in the later part of 24 October due to the effects of the CME
reported above.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 2 21100012
Townsville 2 12100011
Learmonth 1 11000002
Norfolk Island 2 -1100012
Camden 1 11100001
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 9 43321111
Mawson 4 32102000
Davis 6 23222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2211 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 5 Quiet
24 Oct 7 Quiet
25 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominately Quiet over the
Australian region during 22 October with some Unsettled periods
at High latitude. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for 23
October and most of 24 October with activity possibly increasing
late on 24 October into 25 October due to the anticipated CME
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the forecast period. Possible CME effects may degrade HF conditions
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day, with enhancements
to 70%, 13-18UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 115 About 20% above predicted monthly values
24 Oct 105 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
25 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced over the past 24 hours. HF conditions are expected
to be mostly normal for the next few days. Possible effects from
CME observed on 22 October may degrade HF conditions at High
latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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