[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 11 issued 2352 UT on 23 Oct 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 24 10:52:17 EST 2011 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 156/110


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Oct             25 Oct             26 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Regions 1330(N08E60) and 1324(N12W00) produced two C2 
flares. Background X-Ray flux declined to B-class levels 
towards the end of the UT day. New region 1331(N11W60) was numbered 
today. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with M-class 
flares likely over the forecast period. Proton flux observed 
by GOES increased. This increase is linked to the long duration 
M1 flare on 22 October. Solar wind speed remained below 310km/s 
over the last 24 hours while IMF Bz varied mostly between -4nT 
and +2nT. The CME observed on 22 October is expected to cause an 
increase in the wind speed late on 24 October.




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111102
      Darwin               4   21111112
      Townsville           5   21111113
      Learmonth            3   12111102
      Norfolk Island       3   11111112
      Camden               3   11111102
      Canberra             1   11100001
      Hobart               3   11111102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     1   00011001
      Casey                9   24321122
      Mawson               6   11112223
      Davis                9   23322222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active
26 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominately Quiet over the 
Australian region during 23 October with some Unsettled periods 
at High latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to increase 
late on 24 October into 25 October due to the anticipated CME 
effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 
the forecast period. Possible CME effects may degrade HF conditions 
at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Oct   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Oct   105    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
25 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values
26 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values 
to enhanced over the past 24 hours. HF conditions are expected 
to be mostly normal for the next few days. Possible effects from 
CME observed on 22 October may degrade HF conditions at High 
latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    25200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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