[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 11 issued 2349 UT on 21 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 22 10:49:08 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1300UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: A M1.3 flare associated with Type II and Type IV Radio
Sweeps was observed from region 1319(N12W79) at 1300UT otherwise
solar activity was at Low levels during 21 October. There is
a chance of isolated M class flares over the next 3 days. New
region 1329(S30W42) was numbered today. A North directed CME
was observed early in the UT day. It is not expected to be geoeffective.
Solar wind parameters have been mostly undisturbed over the the
past 24 hours and are expected to be so over the forecast period.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1305 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 21 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 22100011
Darwin 4 22110022
Townsville 2 22100011
Learmonth 3 22100102
Norfolk Island 2 11100112
Camden 2 21100011
Canberra 1 11000010
Hobart 3 22200010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 12100000
Casey 10 33431111
Mawson 11 43310133
Davis 10 32421222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2100 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 5 Quiet
23 Oct 5 Quiet
24 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the Australian region
over the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good over the
past 24 hours and are expected to be so over the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 110 About 20% above predicted monthly values
23 Oct 110 About 20% above predicted monthly values
24 Oct 105 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced over the past 24 hours. HF conditions are expected
to be mostly normal to enhanced for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 63500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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