[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 11 issued 2333 UT on 20 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 21 10:33:27 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0327UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate today. Returning region
1318(N19, L=97) produced an M1.6 flare at 0325UT. Region
1324(N11E40) produced two C-class flares today. Three new
regions 1326(N16W36), 1327(S22E10) and 1328(N18E23) were
numbered today Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease
from 420 km/s to 360 km/s during the day. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated between +/-5nT for most parts of the
day. Solar activity is expected to stay at Low levels for
the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated M-class
event from region 1324 and 1319(N11W66). Previously M-flare(s)
producing region 1305 is due for return to the north-east
limb around 21 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22100122
Darwin 4 22110122
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 4 22110121
Norfolk Island 3 22100112
Camden 3 22100121
Canberra 3 22000012
Hobart 3 22100121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
Davis 12 34322231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2202 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 5 Quiet
22 Oct 5 Quiet
23 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed during 20 October.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during
20 October. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for
the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 110 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 Oct 110 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
23 Oct 110 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced during 20 October. Nearly similar HF conditions may
be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 80300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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