[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 11 issued 2342 UT on 19 Oct 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 20 10:42:42 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 147/101


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Oct             21 Oct             22 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Six C-class flares 
were observed today - the largest being a C5.5 (0455UT) 
from region 1324(N12E55). Solar wind speed showed a gradual 
increase from 360 km/s to 420 km/s during the day. The Bz 
component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-5nT for most 
parts of the day. Regions 1324 showed growth in area over 
the last 24 hours. Isolated M-class activity may be possible 
from Regions 1324 and region 1319(N10W53). Solar activity 
is expected to stay at Low levels for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22121001
      Darwin               5   22122112
      Townsville           5   22122112
      Learmonth            3   22121001
      Norfolk Island       4   21121111
      Camden               3   22121001
      Canberra             2   21011001
      Hobart               4   22121002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
      Davis               11   33333122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct : 
      Darwin              18   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2220 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Oct     5    Quiet
21 Oct     5    Quiet
22 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed during 19 October. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during 
19 October. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for 
the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Oct   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Oct   110    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
21 Oct   110    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 Oct   110    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values 
to enhanced during 19 October. Nearly similar HF conditions 
may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    45800 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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