[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 11 issued 2342 UT on 19 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 20 10:42:42 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Six C-class flares
were observed today - the largest being a C5.5 (0455UT)
from region 1324(N12E55). Solar wind speed showed a gradual
increase from 360 km/s to 420 km/s during the day. The Bz
component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-5nT for most
parts of the day. Regions 1324 showed growth in area over
the last 24 hours. Isolated M-class activity may be possible
from Regions 1324 and region 1319(N10W53). Solar activity
is expected to stay at Low levels for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 22121001
Darwin 5 22122112
Townsville 5 22122112
Learmonth 3 22121001
Norfolk Island 4 21121111
Camden 3 22121001
Canberra 2 21011001
Hobart 4 22121002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Davis 11 33333122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2220 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 5 Quiet
21 Oct 5 Quiet
22 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed during 19 October.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during
19 October. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for
the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 110 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
21 Oct 110 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 Oct 110 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced during 19 October. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 45800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list