[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 11 issued 2326 UT on 18 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 19 10:26:56 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. One small C-class
flare was observed today. Solar wind speed fluctuated between
360 km/s and 400 km/s during the day. The Bz component of
the IMF fluctuated between +/-5nT for most parts of the day.
Regions 1321(S14E09) showed spot development. Isolated
M-class activity may be possible from Regions 1319(N11W39)
and 1324(N10E63).Solar activity is expected to stay at Low
levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 3 12200021
Townsville 4 21100132
Learmonth 3 12100212
Norfolk Island 4 11100123
Camden 2 11100211
Canberra 1 11000111
Hobart 2 12100200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Davis 10 23422222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 5 Quiet
20 Oct 5 Quiet
21 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions with isolated unsettled
periods were observed during 18 October. Mostly Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good
during 18 October. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 110 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
20 Oct 110 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
21 Oct 110 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced during 18 October. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 63000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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