[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 11 issued 2333 UT on 17 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 18 10:33:44 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Four small C-class
flares were observed during the UT day today. Solar wind speed
gradually declined from 420 km/s to 380 km/s during the day.
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-4nT for most
parts of the day. Two new regions, 1323(N23E52) and 1324(N11E80)
were numbered today. Regions 1314(N27W30) and 1319(N10W26)
showed spot development. Solar activity is expected to stay at
Low levels for the next 3 days.Previously X-flare(s) producing
region 1302 is due for return to the north-east limb around 18 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with
isolated Active periods.
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 21100101
Darwin 2 21100102
Townsville 3 21110111
Learmonth 2 21010102
Norfolk Island 2 21100110
Camden 1 -1110001
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Davis 13 43332213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2301 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 5 Quiet
19 Oct 5 Quiet
20 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed
during 17 October for Australian and Antarctic regions
with some Active periods in Antarctic regions. Mostly
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during
17 October. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for
the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 100 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct 100 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
20 Oct 100 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced during 17 October. Nearly similar HF conditions may
be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 68800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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