[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 11 issued 2352 UT on 16 Oct 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 17 10:52:41 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 151/106


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Oct             18 Oct             19 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: C-class flare activity was observed during 16 October. 
Further C-class flare activity is possible over the next few 
days with the small chance of M-class flares. A Type II sweep 
was observed at 1357UT on 16 October in association with a C1-flare 
from region 1317. The estimated shock speed from this sweep was 
618 km/s. Analysis of STEREO B satellite imagery suggests a very 
weak CME was observed in the ecliptic plane around the time of 
this event, however, LASCO C2 imagery suggests CME activity around 
this time is directed to the west. Further imagery and analysis is 
required to ascertain the geoeffectiveness of this event, however, 
any impact is likely to be only weakly geoeffective and anticipated 
to occur during the latter half of 19 October. Solar wind declined 
slowly during 16 October. Solar wind speeds may increase slightly 
during the latter half of 19 October under the influence of possible 
CME effects.


Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1302 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 18 Oct. Also, previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 1305 is due for return to the north-east limb 
around this date.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22113112
      Darwin               6   22113112
      Townsville           6   22113122
      Learmonth            7   22123113
      Norfolk Island       5   22112122
      Camden               7   23113112
      Canberra             3   12102011
      Hobart               6   23113111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
      Davis               11   32------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct : 
      Darwin              15   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   3201 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Oct     6    Quiet
18 Oct     5    Quiet
19 Oct    15    Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods
                at high latitudes

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed during 16 October 
for Australian and Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet conditions 
are expected for the next few days. Isolated Unsettled levels 
are possible during the latter half of 19 October due to possible 
CME effects with the chance of Active levels at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during 
16 October and are expected to be mostly normal to good for the 
next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs over the next 
few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Oct   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Oct    90    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
18 Oct    90    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct    85    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values 
to enhanced during 16 October. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values to enhanced for the next few days. 
There is the small chance of SWFs over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    91500 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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