[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 16 10:31:01 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Oct             17 Oct             18 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed from a 
number of solar regions during 15 October. Further C-class flare 
activity is possible over the next few days with the small chance 
of M-class flares. A weak Type II sweep was observed on the Culgoora 
Radio Spectrograph at 0443UT on 15 October with a shock speed 
of approximately 600 km/s. This sweep was most likely associated 
with a flare from region 1318 around this time. Analysis of STEREO 
and SOHO satellite imagery suggests that a possible front-side 
CME associated with this event is primarily directed up out of 
the ecliptic plane and to the east and therefore not expected 
to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds reached approximately 500 
km/s during the 15 October most likely due to the influence of 
coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds may increase 
slightly further during 16 October under the influence of a coronal 
hole solar wind stream.

Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1302 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 18 Oct. Also, previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 1305 is due for return to the north-east limb 
around this date.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32113311
      Darwin               7   32112312
      Townsville           8   32123311
      Learmonth            7   32013301
      Norfolk Island       4   22112200
      Camden               8   32113311
      Canberra             3   22002200
      Hobart               8   33013310    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
      Davis               14   44332222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Oct     6    Quiet
18 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed during 
15 October for the Australian region with Active periods at Antarctic 
regions. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next few 
days. Isolated Unsettled levels are possible during 16 October 
due to a coronal hole solar wind stream with the chance of further 
Active levels at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during 
15 October and are expected to be mostly normal to good for the 
next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs over the next 
few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Oct    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Oct    85    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
17 Oct    85    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
18 Oct    85    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values 
to enhanced during 15 October. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values to enhanced for the next few days. 
There is the small chance of SWFs over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    58500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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