[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 16 10:31:01 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed from a
number of solar regions during 15 October. Further C-class flare
activity is possible over the next few days with the small chance
of M-class flares. A weak Type II sweep was observed on the Culgoora
Radio Spectrograph at 0443UT on 15 October with a shock speed
of approximately 600 km/s. This sweep was most likely associated
with a flare from region 1318 around this time. Analysis of STEREO
and SOHO satellite imagery suggests that a possible front-side
CME associated with this event is primarily directed up out of
the ecliptic plane and to the east and therefore not expected
to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds reached approximately 500
km/s during the 15 October most likely due to the influence of
coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds may increase
slightly further during 16 October under the influence of a coronal
hole solar wind stream.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1302 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 18 Oct. Also, previously M-flare(s)
producing region 1305 is due for return to the north-east limb
around this date.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 32113311
Darwin 7 32112312
Townsville 8 32123311
Learmonth 7 32013301
Norfolk Island 4 22112200
Camden 8 32113311
Canberra 3 22002200
Hobart 8 33013310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Davis 14 44332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Oct 6 Quiet
18 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed during
15 October for the Australian region with Active periods at Antarctic
regions. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next few
days. Isolated Unsettled levels are possible during 16 October
due to a coronal hole solar wind stream with the chance of further
Active levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during
15 October and are expected to be mostly normal to good for the
next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs over the next
few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 85 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
17 Oct 85 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
18 Oct 85 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced during 15 October. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values to enhanced for the next few days.
There is the small chance of SWFs over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 58500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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