[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 15 10:25:42 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Oct             16 Oct             17 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed during 
14 October. Further C-class flare activity is possible over the 
next few days with the small chance of M-class flares. Further 
CME activity observed in STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery during 
14 October appears to be associated with backside events and 
is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds predominantly 
remained below 420 km/s during the past 24 hours. Solar wind 
speeds may increase mildly late on 15 October and into 16 October 
due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream.

Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1302 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 18 Oct. Also, previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 1305 is due for return to the north-east limb 
around this date.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Darwin               2   11100112
      Townsville           2   11100021
      Learmonth            2   21000011
      Norfolk Island       2   21100011
      Camden               1   11000020
      Canberra             0   10000010
      Hobart               1   01100011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
      Davis                8   33222221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1202 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Oct     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet levels were observed during 14 October for the 
Australian region with an Unsettled periods at Antarctic regions. 
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next few days. Isolated 
Unsettled levels are possible late 15 and 16 October due to an 
anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream with the chance of 
Active levels at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during 
14 October and are expected to be mostly normal to good for the 
next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs over the next 
few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Oct    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Oct    80    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Oct    80    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Oct    80    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values 
to enhanced during 14 October. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values to enhanced for the next few days. 
There is the small chance of SWFs over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    40100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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