[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 10 10:31:55 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. One C1.7 flare was
observed from region 1314(N26E72) today. Solar wind speed
varied between around 300 km/s and 360 km/s during the UT
day today. The Bz component of the IMF varied between +/-6nT
for most parts of the day. Low levels of solar activity may
be expected for the next three days. Solar wind stream
parameters showed slight enhancement due to the anticipated
effect of a coronal hole today. This coronal hole effect may
be expected to continue on 10 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Mostly Quiet to
Unsettled with some Active periods.
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 32222222
Darwin 8 33221222
Townsville 10 33232222
Learmonth 8 32222222
Alice_Springs 7 22222222
Norfolk_Island 7 -3221222
Gnangara 7 32222221
Camden 7 32222112
Canberra 7 32222112
Hobart 7 32222112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie_Island 13 33344111
Casey 8 33321112
Davis 16 43443222
Mawson 22 53522125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1111 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 12 Quiet to Active.
11 Oct 7 Quiet to unsettled
12 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsttled conditions with some
Active periods were observed today. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected on 10 October due to the effect of a high
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
Conditions are expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 11 October and mostly Quiet on 12 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels today.
Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs may be observed on 10 October due to expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. HF conditions
may be expected to return to mostly normal levels on 11
October and then stay at normal levels on 12 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 80 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
11 Oct 84 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 84 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels
today. Minor to mild degradations in conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed on 10 October due
to expected rise in geomagnetic conditions on this day.
HF conditions may be expected to return to mostly normal
levels on 11 October and stay at normal levels on 12 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 23400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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