[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 11 10:23:51 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Several C-class flares were observed from region 1313
during 10 October. Further C-class flare activity is possible
over the next few days with the chance of M-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 22100111
Darwin 4 22200112
Townsville 7 23211222
Learmonth 6 23211211
Alice Springs 3 22100111
Norfolk Island 3 22100111
Gnangara 4 22110211
Camden 3 22200101
Canberra 2 12100101
Hobart 2 12100200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 02000000
Casey 15 45420212
Davis 8 23322221
Mawson 6 33210021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 3433 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 5 Quiet
12 Oct 5 Quiet
13 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet levels have been observed during 10 October
for Australian and Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet conditions
are expected for the next few days. Isolated Unsettled to Active
levels are possible during 13 October due to an anticipated coronal
hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during
10 October and are expected to be mostly normal to good for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 85 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Oct 85 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Oct 85 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced during 10 October. HF conditions are expected to
be mostly normal to enhanced for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 40500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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