[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 9 10:31:02 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. One C-class flare
was observed from region 1309(N22W11) today. Solar wind
speed varied between around 320 km/s and 350 km/s during
the UT day today. The Bz component of the IMF stayed close
to the normal value until around 1400UT and then showed
fluctuations in the range of +/-5nT. Very Low to Low levels
of solar activity may be expected for the next three days.
Solar wind stream may get strengthened on 09 and 10 October
due to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Mostly Quiet with some
Unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 21112322
Darwin 8 -1111333
Townsville 8 22112332
Learmonth 9 22112333
Alice_Springs 7 21112332
Norfolk_Island 4 21101222
Gnangara 7 21112323
Camden 6 31112222
Canberra 3 11001222
Hobart 5 11111322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Macquarie_Island 3 00111212
Casey 9 22322322
Davis 11 23332223
Mawson 14 22221245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 2222 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 12 Quiet to Active.
10 Oct 12 Quiet to Active.
11 Oct 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions with some
Unsettled periods were observed today. Geomagnetic activity
may rise to Unsettled and Active levels on 09 and 10 October
due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a
recurrent coronal hole. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions
may be expected on 11 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels today.
Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs may be expected on 9 and 10 October due to expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. HF conditions
may be expected to return to mostly normal levels on 11 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 78 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
10 Oct 78 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
11 Oct 82 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels today.
Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs may be observed on 09 and 10 October due to expected
rise in geomagnetic conditions on these days. HF conditions
may be expected to return to mostly normal levels on 11 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 19900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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