[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 8 10:30:11 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 122/75

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Oct             09 Oct             10 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Four C-class flares 
were observed today. Solar wind speed decreased from around 
380 km/s to 340 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component 
of the IMF stayed close to the normal value for most parts 
of the UT day, staying negative upto around -5nT between 
0100 UT and 0600 UT. Low levels of solar activity may be 
expected for the next three days with some possibility of 
M-class activity. Solar wind stream may get strengthened on 
09 and 10 October due to the effect of a recurrent coronal 
hole. Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1295 is due for 
return to the north-east limb around 8 Oct. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221111
      Darwin               9   33223212
      Townsville           7   32221222
      Learmonth            8   33221222
      Alice_Springs        6   23221112
      Norfolk_Island       4   22210111
      Gnangara             6   22221221
      Camden               4   22220111
      Canberra             4   22220111
      Hobart               4   22220111
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct : 
      Macquarie_Island    14   22550010
      Casey               10   34221222
      Davis               13   33432231
      Mawson              13   33331224
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct : 
      Darwin              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1211 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Oct     6    Quiet 
09 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
10 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed 
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for 08 
October. Geomagnetic activity may rise to Unsettled to Active 
levels on 09 and 10 October due to the effect of a high speed 
solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
09 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
10 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Oct    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Oct    84    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Oct    80    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
10 Oct    80    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels today. 
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected on 08 October. 
Minor to mild degradations in conditions and depressions in 
MUFs may be observed on 09 and 10 October due to an expected 
rise in geomagnetic conditions on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:   10.1 p/cc  Temp:    55100 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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