[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 7 10:13:41 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Two C-class flares
were observed today, the largest being a C1.9 (06/0944UT).
Solar wind speed decreased from around 420 km/s at 0000UT
to around 370 km/s by 0700UT and then stayed close to this
value for the remaining part of the UT day. The Bz component
of the IMF stayed positive up to 10nT for most parts of the
UT day. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the
next three days with some possibility of M-class activity.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1295 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 8 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with
isolated Active periods.
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 23223222
Darwin 13 24224223
Townsville 11 23223233
Learmonth 12 34223223
Alice_Springs 9 23223222
Norfolk_Island 8 23123222
Gnangara 8 23223212
Camden 8 23123222
Canberra 8 23123222
Hobart 8 23123212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20 2223 5533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 8 Quiet
08 Oct 6 Quiet
09 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: After the passage of previously predicted CMEs,
the solar wind stream parameters weekend faster than
expected. The IMF Bz also stayed mostly positive over
the last 24 hours. Hence the geomagnetic activity did
not stay high at the predicted values and declined to
mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels with some Active periods
on 6 October. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to stay mostly at Quiet levels for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels
today as the geomagnetic activity declined faster than
expected. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels
today as the geomagnetic activity weakend faster than
expected. HF conditions may be expected to stay mostly
at normal levels for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 46800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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