[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 7 10:13:41 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Two C-class flares 
were observed today, the largest being a C1.9 (06/0944UT). 
Solar wind speed decreased from around 420 km/s at 0000UT 
to around 370 km/s by 0700UT and then stayed close to this
 value for the remaining part of the UT day. The Bz component 
of the IMF stayed positive up to 10nT for most parts of the 
UT day. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the 
next three days with some possibility of M-class activity. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1295 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 8 Oct. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with
isolated Active periods.

Estimated Indices 06 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23223222
      Darwin              13   24224223
      Townsville          11   23223233
      Learmonth           12   34223223
      Alice_Springs        9   23223222
      Norfolk_Island       8   23123222
      Gnangara             8   23223212
      Camden               8   23123222
      Canberra             8   23123222
      Hobart               8   23123212    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct : 
      Darwin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20   2223 5533     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct     8    Quiet
08 Oct     6    Quiet
09 Oct     6    Quiet

COMMENT: After the passage of previously predicted CMEs, 
the solar wind stream parameters weekend faster than 
expected. The IMF Bz also stayed mostly positive over 
the last 24 hours. Hence the geomagnetic activity did 
not stay high at the predicted values and declined to 
mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels with some Active periods 
on 6 October. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to stay mostly at Quiet levels for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels 
today as the geomagnetic activity declined faster than 
expected. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected 
for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Oct    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels 
today as the geomagnetic activity weakend faster than 
expected. HF conditions may be expected to stay mostly 
at normal levels for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    46800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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