[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 6 10:46:07 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Four C-class flares were
observed today, the largest being a C9 (05/1242UT) from region
1313 (S13E65). A weak shock at 0645UT and a sudden impulse at
0737 ware observed. They seem to be related to the arrival of
previously anticipated CMEs that were observed between 30 September
and 02 October. After the arrival of shock the solar wind speed
increased from 360 km/s to 470 km/s and stayed nearly at this
level for most parts of the remaining UT day. The Bz component
of the IMF varied between +/-10nT for most parts of the UT day.
The solar wind stream is expected to remain strengthened on 06
October due to the CME effect. Low to moderate levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next three days.
A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0645UT on 05 Oct.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1295 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 8 Oct. Also, previously X-flare(s)
producing region 1302 is due for return to the north-east limb
around this date.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Mostly Unsettled to Active with
some Minor Storm periods
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 15 12334433
Darwin 19 12334534
Townsville 15 12334433
Learmonth 18 22334533
Alice_Springs 15 22334423
Norfolk_Island 13 22334332
Gnangara 15 22334432
Camden 14 12334423
Canberra 14 12334423
Hobart 16 12344423
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 48 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2022 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 17 Unsettled to Active, minor storm periods possible
07 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: As anticipated, geomagnetic activity was mostly at Unsettled
to Active levels today with some Minor Storm periods. This rise
in Activity seems to be linked to the expected arrival of the
CMEs. Mostly unsettled to active levels of geomagnetic activity
with the possibility of minor storm periods may be expected on
06 October due to the CME effect. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to return to mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels on day 2 and then
to mostly Quiet levels on day 3 of the forecast period.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 05 Oct, a weak (14nT) impulse
was observed at 0737UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels today.
Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be expected at
Mid and High latitude locations on 06 October due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
HF conditions may be expected to stay mostly at normal levels
on 07 and 08 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels today.
Minor to mild degradations may be expected on 06 October due
to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on this
day. Conditions may be expected to return to mostly normal levels
on 07 October and stay at normal levels on 08 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 35200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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