[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 5 10:27:09 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Oct             06 Oct             07 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. The largest flare, a C7 
(04/0923UT) came from region 1302 (N13W85). Solar wind speed 
varied mostly between 360 km/s and 400 km/s during the UT day. 
The Bz component of the IMF varied between +/-5nT for most parts 
of the UT day, staying mostly southward from 0400UT until around 
1700UT. A full halo CME was observed today starting around 
04/1236UT. This CME is not earthward directed. Expect possible shock 
arrivals and stronger solar wind parameters days one and two 
due to the expected arrival of three CMEs. Solar activity is 
expected to stay at Low levels for the next 3 days.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1295 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 8 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Mostly Quiet with some Unsettled
periods.

Estimated Indices 04 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11232311
      Darwin               8   -3222312
      Townsville          10   21333322
      Learmonth            7   21232311
      Alice_Springs        6   21222301
      Norfolk_Island       5   21221211
      Gnangara             6   11132311
      Camden               6   10232311
      Canberra             4   00222301
      Hobart               6   10232311    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   0012 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active, minor storm periods possible.
06 Oct    17    Unsettled to Active, minor storm periods possible.
07 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 3 October and 
is current for interval 5-6 October Mostly Quiet geomagnetic 
conditions were observed today. Mostly Unsettled to Active levels 
of geomagnetic activity with the possibility of Minor Storm periods 
may be expected for the next two days due to the expected effect 
of 3 earthward directed CMEs. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to return to mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels on day 3 for the 
forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
06 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels today. 
Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions may be expected 
on 05 and 06 October due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic 
activity levels during this period. HF conditions may be expected 
to return to mostly normal levels on day 3.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Oct    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
06 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
07 Oct    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 3 October 
and is current for interval 5-6 October HF conditions stayed 
mostly at normal levels today. Minor to moderate degradations 
on 05 and 06 October may be expected due to expected enhancements 
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. Conditions may 
be expected to return to mostly normal levels on the third day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    38100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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