[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 11 issued 2336 UT on 28 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 29 10:36:39 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Nov             30 Nov             01 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99
COMMENT: Several C class X-rays flares were observed, the largest 
being a C3.2 from region 1361(N18E21). A filament eruption was 
observed in SDO imagery on the eastern limb around 06UT. A CME 
was observed in SOHO and STEREO from around 08UT, possibly associated 
with this event. The bulk of the material appears to be directed 
to the north of the ecliptic and to the east. It is unlikely 
to be geo-effective. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion 
enhancement event beginning 28/0325UT, which can be a precursor 
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. The 
solar wind speed ranged around 400km/s for most of the day. A 
shock was detected at 2115UT after which the speed increased 
to around 550km/s. The IMF Bz component went southward after 
the shock and remains between -5 to -10nT. This is most likely 
the arrival of the CME observed at 08UT on Nov 26. Some C-class 
flare activity with possible isolated M-class flares is expected 
for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21100014
      Darwin               6   21111114
      Townsville           7   22111124
      Learmonth            4   21000004
      Norfolk Island       5   32100013
      Camden               4   11100014
      Canberra             4   10000014
      Hobart               4   11100014    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00------
      Casey                7   32----11
      Mawson               5   21------
      Davis                7   22------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          15   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1131 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Nov    20    Active
30 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 27 November 
and is current for interval 29-30 November. Geomagnetic conditions 
where mainly Quiet until around 22UT when Active conditions were 
observed across all latitudes. This corresponds to a shock seen 
in the solar wind, most likely due to the arrival of a CME. Conditions 
are expected to remain at Active levels over the next day before 
reducing to Quiet to Unsettled for days 2 and 3 as the CME effects 
weaken with some influence from an expected coronal hole high 
speed wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 1145UT 26/11, Ended at 0220UT 28/11

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
COMMENT: Good HF propagation conditions were observed across 
all latitudes. A geomagnetic disturbance in progress may impair 
propagation conditions for mid and high latitudes over the next 
day, improving for days 2 and 3.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Nov   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-50% between 00-17UT
      Enhanced by 15% from 18UT
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% over the last 24 hours
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly vales to 30% enhanced.
01 Dec   130    Near predicted monthly vales to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: MUF enhancements of between 15-50% were observed across 
the region over the last day. The current geomagnetic disturbance 
is expected to impact propagation conditions from central and 
southern regions on day 1 before improving to at least expected 
monthly values on days 2 and 3.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 386 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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