[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 11 issued 2336 UT on 29 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 30 10:36:12 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Nov             01 Dec             02 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94
COMMENT: Several C class X-rays flares were observed, the largest 
being a C2.5 from region 1362(N08E49) and C2.1 from region 1361(N18E07). 
No significant CME events were observed. The IPS Culgoora Observatory 
solar region analysis indicates all regions currently visible 
are stable or declining. The solar wind speed as measured by 
ACE ranged around 450 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between 
-5 to 10nT after a brief southward excursion of -10nT at then 
end of the 28th November. Solar activity is expected to remain 
low for the next 3 days with a small chance of isolated M class 
flares. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually reduce 
to quiescent levels over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      17   45431222
      Darwin              13   44322222
      Townsville          19   45432232
      Learmonth           17   45331232
      Norfolk Island      17   4542112-
      Camden              16   45421222
      Canberra            17   45431221
      Hobart              19   45531221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     9   33331121
      Casey               34   66542233
      Mawson              31   55433362
      Davis               29   54643332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              4   0000 0004     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Dec     5    Quiet
02 Dec     5    Quiet
COMMENT: Active to Minor Storm conditions were observed across 
the Australian region between 00-09UT, dropping to Quiet for 
the remainder of the day. Conditions are expected to remain Quiet 
for the next three days, with some Unsettled periods possible 
for the first day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 1145UT 26/11, Ended at 0220UT 28/11

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Good HF propagation conditions were observed across 
all latitudes. The geomagnetic disturbance which occurred over 
the previous day did not greatly depress the MUFs. Good conditions 
are expected to continue for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Nov   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40% between 00-16UT
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values
01 Dec   120    About 20% above predicted monthly values
02 Dec   130    About 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF enhancements of between 20-40% were observed across 
the region over the last day. The geomagnetic disturbance experienced 
during the first half of the day did not significantly impact 
the MUFs. However, northern and some central sites are observing 
reduced MUFs after local dawn than have been experienced recently, 
with some levels depressed below predicted monthly values. This 
is potentially a result of the geomagnetic activity and suggests 
MUFs will be reduced from the recently enhanced values for the 
next day or two before recovering. Due to the current strength 
of the ionosphere, the MUFs are still expected to be around predicted 
monthly values at worst before becoming enhanced again on days 
2 and 3.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    87800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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