[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 11 issued 2336 UT on 29 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 30 10:36:12 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Several C class X-rays flares were observed, the largest
being a C2.5 from region 1362(N08E49) and C2.1 from region 1361(N18E07).
No significant CME events were observed. The IPS Culgoora Observatory
solar region analysis indicates all regions currently visible
are stable or declining. The solar wind speed as measured by
ACE ranged around 450 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between
-5 to 10nT after a brief southward excursion of -10nT at then
end of the 28th November. Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next 3 days with a small chance of isolated M class
flares. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually reduce
to quiescent levels over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 17 45431222
Darwin 13 44322222
Townsville 19 45432232
Learmonth 17 45331232
Norfolk Island 17 4542112-
Camden 16 45421222
Canberra 17 45431221
Hobart 19 45531221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 9 33331121
Casey 34 66542233
Mawson 31 55433362
Davis 29 54643332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 0000 0004
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Dec 5 Quiet
02 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Active to Minor Storm conditions were observed across
the Australian region between 00-09UT, dropping to Quiet for
the remainder of the day. Conditions are expected to remain Quiet
for the next three days, with some Unsettled periods possible
for the first day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : Began at 1145UT 26/11, Ended at 0220UT 28/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Good HF propagation conditions were observed across
all latitudes. The geomagnetic disturbance which occurred over
the previous day did not greatly depress the MUFs. Good conditions
are expected to continue for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-40% between 00-16UT
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
01 Dec 120 About 20% above predicted monthly values
02 Dec 130 About 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF enhancements of between 20-40% were observed across
the region over the last day. The geomagnetic disturbance experienced
during the first half of the day did not significantly impact
the MUFs. However, northern and some central sites are observing
reduced MUFs after local dawn than have been experienced recently,
with some levels depressed below predicted monthly values. This
is potentially a result of the geomagnetic activity and suggests
MUFs will be reduced from the recently enhanced values for the
next day or two before recovering. Due to the current strength
of the ionosphere, the MUFs are still expected to be around predicted
monthly values at worst before becoming enhanced again on days
2 and 3.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 87800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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