[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 11 issued 2336 UT on 27 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 28 10:36:49 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed today. There
was considerable loop prominence activity in AR1356 (N16W21),
and on the east limb. An eruptive filament was seen in EIT imagery
on the West limb at 19-20UT. A W-directed CME was seen in LASCO
C3 imagery after 1154UT. STEREO imagery suggests the majority
of ejected matter is projected behind the W limb and the event
is unlikely to be geoeffective. The proton event which began
in the middle of the UT day Nov 26 is still in progress. Solar
wind speed increased after 07UT from 340 to over 400 km./s at
the time of report issue. This is probably the onset of the anticipated
coronal hole wind stream. The Bz component of the IMF showed
mostly Northward to Neutral bias, with two sustained periods
of Southward bias 06-09 and 12-16UT at the ACE satellite platform.
A shock impact from the CME observed after 08UT Nov 26 is likely
at Earth Nov 28 or 29. There is a possibility of C- to M-class
flare activity next three days.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1339 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 28 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 7 22232212
Norfolk Island 6 12221222
Camden 7 22322211
Canberra 6 22321211
Hobart 7 22322211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
Macquarie Island 6 21321310
Casey 20 45433322
Mawson 18 23235343
Davis 18 33443333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 12 Unsettled
29 Nov 20 Active
30 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 27 November
and is current for interval 29-30 November The regional geomagnetic
field at low latitudes was Quiet. There were isolated Unsettled
periods at mid latitudes 06-09UT. Conditions at high latitudes
were Quiet with isolated Unsettled to Active periods 06-12 and
15-21UT in response to negative solar wind Bz bias. A mild coronal
hole wind stream should become geoeffective by day one. A shock
impact from a CME observed early on 26 Nov is anticipated day
one or two. Following the impact Active to Minor Storm geomagnetic
conditions are possible. Geomagnetic activity should then decline
but may persist into day three
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 26 11 2011 2245UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
29 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Poor HF propagation conditions observed at high latitudes
throughout the UT day Nov 27 due to elevated proton levels. Proton
event remains in progress at the time of report issue. Further
high latitude disturbance expected days one and two due to elevated
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 10-20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20-40%
during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Townsville no data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
29 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly vales to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Strong to moderate MUF enhancements observed at Equatorial/Aus
stations. Increased absorption observed second half of the UT
day Continental Antarctic stations, extending briefly to Macquarie
Island/S ocean region during the middle part of the UT day. Expect
continuing good ionospheric support Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Expect poor support Antarctic region day one, with the chance
of disturbances extending to S Aus region late day one and into
day two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 61800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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