[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 11 issued 2336 UT on 27 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 28 10:36:49 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99
COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed today. There 
was considerable loop prominence activity in AR1356 (N16W21), 
and on the east limb. An eruptive filament was seen in EIT imagery 
on the West limb at 19-20UT. A W-directed CME was seen in LASCO 
C3 imagery after 1154UT. STEREO imagery suggests the majority 
of ejected matter is projected behind the W limb and the event 
is unlikely to be geoeffective. The proton event which began 
in the middle of the UT day Nov 26 is still in progress. Solar 
wind speed increased after 07UT from 340 to over 400 km./s at 
the time of report issue. This is probably the onset of the anticipated 
coronal hole wind stream. The Bz component of the IMF showed 
mostly Northward to Neutral bias, with two sustained periods 
of Southward bias 06-09 and 12-16UT at the ACE satellite platform. 
A shock impact from the CME observed after 08UT Nov 26 is likely 
at Earth Nov 28 or 29. There is a possibility of C- to M-class 
flare activity next three days.


Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1339 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 28 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet.

Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222211
      Darwin               6   22222212
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            7   22232212
      Norfolk Island       6   12221222
      Camden               7   22322211
      Canberra             6   22321211
      Hobart               7   22322211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     6   21321310
      Casey               20   45433322
      Mawson              18   23235343
      Davis               18   33443333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov    12    Unsettled
29 Nov    20    Active
30 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 27 November 
and is current for interval 29-30 November The regional geomagnetic 
field at low latitudes was Quiet. There were isolated Unsettled 
periods at mid latitudes 06-09UT. Conditions at high latitudes 
were Quiet with isolated Unsettled to Active periods 06-12 and 
15-21UT in response to negative solar wind Bz bias. A mild coronal 
hole wind stream should become geoeffective by day one. A shock 
impact from a CME observed early on 26 Nov is anticipated day 
one or two. Following the impact Active to Minor Storm geomagnetic 
conditions are possible. Geomagnetic activity should then decline 
but may persist into day three

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 26 11 2011 2245UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
29 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
COMMENT: Poor HF propagation conditions observed at high latitudes 
throughout the UT day Nov 27 due to elevated proton levels. Proton 
event remains in progress at the time of report issue. Further 
high latitude disturbance expected days one and two due to elevated 
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Nov   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 10-20% after local dawn. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20-40% 
      during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Townsville no data. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
29 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly vales to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Strong to moderate MUF enhancements observed at Equatorial/Aus 
stations. Increased absorption observed second half of the UT 
day Continental Antarctic stations, extending briefly to Macquarie 
Island/S ocean region during the middle part of the UT day. Expect 
continuing good ionospheric support Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
Expect poor support Antarctic region day one, with the chance 
of disturbances extending to S Aus region late day one and into 
day two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    61800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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