[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 11 issued 2346 UT on 26 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 27 10:46:18 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: * YELLOW *
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Nov             28 Nov             29 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             145/99
COMMENT: A C1.2/C1.5 flare sequence occurred in AR1353 (N08W46)/ 
AR1357 (W limb) at 0710/0824UT. The sequence appears to be associated 
with an eruptive filament channel W of AR 1353 first visible 
at 0644UT. A semi-halo CME is first visible in LASCO C3 imagery 
after 0806UT. CME velocity is approximately 700km/s with a
predominantly W-directed component. Following this sequence, energetic 
particle flux levels incresed by two orders of magnitude over the next 
few hours. The proton event remains in progress at the time of 
report issue. A shock impact from the CME is likely at Earth 
late on the UT day Nov 28 to early Nov 29. Solar wind velocity 
declined slightly over the UT day and the Bz component of the 
IMF showed minor fluctuations about neutral. There is a possibility 
of C- to M-class flare activity next three days. 


Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1339 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 28 Nov. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21111123
      Darwin               6   22222112
      Townsville           8   22222223
      Learmonth            4   10121113
      Norfolk_Island       7   2-111114
      Camden               4   11112122
      Canberra             3   10111022
      Hobart               5   21211122
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     1   11000011
      Casey               15   34432223
      Mawson              11   22222334
      Davis               13   33332323
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2210 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid latitudes 
was Quiet. Conditions at high latitudes were Quiet with isolated 
Unsettled to Active intervals. Expect mostly Quiet conditions 
day one. A weak coronal hole wind stream should become geoeffective 
by day two. A shock impact from a CME observed early on 26 Nov 
is anticipated late day two to early day three. Following the 
impact Active to Minor Storm geomagnetic conditions are possible. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 26 11 2011 1145UT and is in
progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Poor HF propagation conditions observed at high latitudes 
second half of the UT day Nov 26 due to elevated proton levels. 
Proton event remains in progress at the time of report issue. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Nov   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-40% during local night.
      Townsville no data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values 00-12UT.
      Absorption observed 12-24UT.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 
28 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 
29 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Strong to moderate MUF enhancements observed at
Equatorial/Aus stations. Increased absorption observed second half 
of the UT day Continental Antarctic stations, but not extending to 
Macquarie Island/S ocean region. Expect continuing good 
ionospheric support Equatorial/N Aus regions. Expect poor support 
Antarctic region day one, with the chance of disturbances 
extending to S Aus region late day two and into day three. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 409 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list