[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 11 issued 2322 UT on 25 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 26 10:22:12 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with a C3 level flare in AR1359 
(N16W65) at 0345UT and a C2 level flare also in AR 1359 at 2158UT 
with an associated Type II radio sweep. Estimated shock speed 
700-900 km/s. Solar wind speed was steady at ~400km/s and the 
Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT with no extended periods 
of negative bias. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22211112
      Darwin               6   22211123
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            4   21211102
      Norfolk_Island       4   22101112
      Camden               5   22211112
      Canberra             3   22200012
      Hobart               4   22201112
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     3   22100002
      Casey               20   45532222
      Mawson              13   44221124
      Davis               14   43422232
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1001 3112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov     7    Quiet 
27 Nov     7    Quiet 
28 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid latitudes 
was Quiet. Conditions at high latitudes were Quiet with isolated 
Unsettled to Active intervals. Expect mostly Quiet conditions 
next two days with the chance of isolated minor disturbances. 
A weak coronal hole wind stream should become geoeffective by 
day three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Nov   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      No data after 05UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Townsville no data. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 
27 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 
28 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 
COMMENT: Strong to moderate MUF enhancements observed at Equatorial/N 
Aus stations. Moderate enhancements observed at S Aus stations. 
Expect similar conditions next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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