[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 11 issued 2335 UT on 24 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 25 10:35:23 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. LASCO 
C3 imagery shows a narrow NW directed CME first visible after 
0142UT. The CME appears to be associated with a small eruptive 
prominence on the NW solar limb. Geoeffective consequences Nov 
26-27 are likely to be brief and minor. Solar wind speed was 
relatively steady at 360-400 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF 
fluctuated +/-5nT over the UT day with periods of sustained Southward 
bias during the mid and late parts of the day. A C2 level flare 
is in progress at the time of report issue. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22133122
      Darwin               9   -2223223
      Townsville           9   22233222
      Learmonth            9   32123223
      Norfolk_Island       6   11123122
      Camden               7   12133122
      Canberra             7   11133122
      Hobart               8   22133122
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     -   --------
      Casey               26   55533233
      Mawson              22   43323236
      Davis               15   33334233
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2211 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov     7    Quiet 
26 Nov     5    Quiet 
27 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid latitudes 
was Quiet with Unsettled periods 09-15UT. Conditions at high 
latitudes were unsettled with isolated Active to Minor Storm 
intervals. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days with 
the chance of isolated minor disturbances. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Nov   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
      No data available after 16UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
      Townsville no data available.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
26 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
27 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
COMMENT: Strong to moderate MUF enhancements observed at Equatorial/N 
Aus stations. Moderate enhancements observed at S Aus stations. 
Expect similar conditions next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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