[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 11 issued 2335 UT on 23 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 24 10:35:19 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Nov             25 Nov             26 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99
COMMENT: Only minor C-class flares observed today. LASCO C3 imagery 
shows a NW-directed semi-halo CME after 22/23UT. This was associated 
with a filament eruption in the NW quadrant visible in EIT imagery 
23/20-22UT. STEREO imagery suggests the CME was directed mostly 
above the ecliptic plane. Following this event there was a second 
CME visible in STEREO imagery. This CME was a far-side, north 
directed event. Solar activity is expected to remain low, with 
a chance of C- to M-class activity mainly from region 1356. Solar 
wind speed was steady at 350 to 400 km/s. The Bz component of 
the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT over the UT day. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212112
      Darwin               7   32222212
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   31212212
      Norfolk_Island       4   22111112
      Camden               5   22212112
      Canberra             5   22212111
      Hobart               5   22212112
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     5   32112011
      Casey               23   35543233
      Mawson              18   44322244
      Davis               17   34433233
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2122 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Nov     7    Quiet 
25 Nov     7    Quiet 
26 Nov     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid 
latitudes. Conditions at high latitudes were unsettled with isolated 
Active intervals. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days 
with the chance of minor disturbance days one or two. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Nov   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 10% 18-21UT.
      Enhanced by 20-40% at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
      Townsville no data after 06UT. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
      Sydney no data after 16UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
25 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
26 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
COMMENT: Strong to moderate MUF enhancements observed at Equatorial/N 
Aus stations. Moderate enhancements observed at S Aus stations. 
Expect similar conditions next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    8.8 p/cc  Temp:    44900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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