[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 11 issued 2323 UT on 22 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 23 10:23:44 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Nov             24 Nov             25 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99
COMMENT: Active region 1356 (N15E42) produced minor C-class flares 
at 0404UT and 0954UT. An East-directed CME was observed in LASCO 
C3 imagery 0642-1230UT. This was possibly associated with the 
earlier C-class flare or a disappearing solar filament in the 
Southeast quadrant. The event is unlikely to be geoeffective. 
Solar wind speed increased slightly from 300 to 380 km/s over 
the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22223212
      Darwin               9   32223213
      Townsville          10   22233223
      Learmonth            9   32223203
      Norfolk_Island       7   22223212
      Camden               7   22223212
      Canberra             7   22223212
      Hobart               7   22223212
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island    13   22335301
      Casey               23   45542223
      Mawson              14   33333422
      Davis               19   34443422
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov : 
      Darwin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            --   (N/A )
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1111 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Nov     5    Quiet 
24 Nov     7    Quiet 
25 Nov     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at low to 
mid latitudes with isolated Unsettled intervals mainly 12-15UT 
and 21-24UT. Conditions at high latitudes were unsettled with 
isolated Active intervals. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next 
three days with the chance of minor disturbance days two or three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Nov   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
24 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
25 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
COMMENT: Strong to moderate MUF enhancements observed at Equatorial/N 
Aus stations. Moderate enhancements observed at S Aus stations. 
Expect similar conditions next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 280 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    21100 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list