[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 11 issued 2331 UT on 21 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 22 10:31:16 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             145/99
COMMENT: Only a few minor C-class flares observed today. AR1356 
(N14E51) increased in size over the period. AR 1354 (S17E17) 
showed some decay. Solar wind speed remained steady at around 
300 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF was moderately Southward 
over most of the UT day, returning to neutral/northward late 
in the day. Expect low solar activity next three days with a 
chance of C- to M- class flares, mainly from AR 1356. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet. 

Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22111113
      Darwin               6   22112123
      Townsville           8   22222223
      Learmonth            4   21011113
      Norfolk_Island       3   11111112
      Camden               4   22111112
      Canberra             4   11111103
      Hobart               5   12111203
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     3   11112201
      Casey                9   33222123
      Mawson              18   24222216
      Davis               12   23233323
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov : 
      Darwin              19   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov     5    Quiet 
23 Nov     5    Quiet 
24 Nov     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Despite a moderately negative Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field over most of the UT day, observed 
geomagnetic conditions were Quiet. Expect mostly Quiet conditions 
next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Nov   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
23 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
24 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced MUF's observed throughout the region. 
Strong enhancements at some low latitude stations. Moderate to 
strong enhancements at mid latitude stations, tending towards 
normal conditions after local dawn today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 301 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    15600 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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