[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 20 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 21 10:29:51 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 140/94

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Only C-class flares, mostly from regions 1354 (S17,E30), 
1356 (N14,E69) and 1357 (N17,W18). Two CMEs, the first was observed 
in LASCO C2 images at 1424 UT from the north-east limb and may 
be associated with region 1356. This CME is not likely to be 
geo-effective. The latter CME was observed in LASCO images at 
1512 UT and was probably associated with a filament eruption 
in the north-west quadrant seen in SDO images from around 1400 
UT. STEREO A images indicate material ejected towards the equatorial 
plane from this CME, and based on available images, could 
be geo-effective in five to six days. ACE data show the solar 
wind was undisturbed. Wind parameters are expected to be mostly 
undisturbed over the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet. 

Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11110112
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           6   22121222
      Learmonth            2   10110112
      Norfolk_Island       4   31010112
      Camden               3   11110122
      Canberra             3   01110122
      Hobart               3   11110112
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     0   00000011
      Casey                5   22221112
      Mawson               4   10101132
      Davis                8   22122332
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov : 
      Darwin              60   (Unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov     5    Quiet 
22 Nov     5    Quiet 
23 Nov     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Nov   177

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-05, 19-23 UT.
      Enhanced 20-45% at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced 25-50% at Townsville and 22-23 UT at
      Darwin. No Darwin data 00-21 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly 25-50% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly enhanced 20-45%.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 
22 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 
23 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    38500 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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