[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 11 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 20 10:30:07 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 140/94

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Nov             21 Nov             22 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Nine, low level, C-class flares, mostly from regions 
1354 (S16,E44) and 1355 (N14,E60). Two, weak CMEs from the north-west 
limb were observed in LASCO images but are not expected to be 
geo-effective. ACE data show the solar wind was undisturbed. 
Wind parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed over the 
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           4   22111121
      Learmonth            2   21010001
      Norfolk_Island       1   110001-1
      Camden               1   11100011
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               1   11100000
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     0   00000000
      Casey                9   34321011
      Mawson               1   21001000
      Davis                5   22222111
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 1110     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Nov     5    Quiet 
21 Nov     5    Quiet 
22 Nov     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Nov   166

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-04, 20-23 UT.
      Enhanced 20-40% at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced 20-50% at Townsville. Near predicted
      monthly values at Darwin 00-05 UT. No Darwin
      data 06-23 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly 20-45% above predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly 20-45% above predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 
21 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
22 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    56000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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