[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 18 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 19 10:29:08 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 144/98

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Nov             20 Nov             21 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Four, low level, C-class flares from regions 1346 (S17,W17), 
1353 (N08,E59) and 1354 (S15,E56). The Sun became active from 
17/2036 to ~0430 UT with a number of CMEs. IN LASCO images these 
appear to have originated from the limbs or far side; none are 
expected to be geo-effective. SDO images show a filament lifting 
from the south-east limb at 1646 UT. ACE data show the solar 
wind was undisturbed. Wind parameters are expected to be mostly 
undisturbed over the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet. 

Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101111
      Darwin               5   22212112
      Townsville           5   12212221
      Learmonth            4   21112102
      Norfolk_Island       3   21101111
      Camden               3   12101111
      Canberra             1   11101001
      Hobart               2   11201101
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     1   11100000
      Casey               14   44422122
      Mawson               7   23212113
      Davis                9   33322221
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0020 1011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Nov     6    Quiet 
20 Nov     6    Quiet 
21 Nov     6    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Nov   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-10, 18-23 UT.
      Enhanced to 45% at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced to 40%. Near predicted monthly values 00,
      04-07,22-23 UT at Darwin. No data Darwin 01-03 UT
      and Townsville 00-07 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly 20-40% enhanced. No Hobart data 15-19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly 20-40% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
20 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
21 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 428 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    79800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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