[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 18 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 19 10:29:08 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Four, low level, C-class flares from regions 1346 (S17,W17),
1353 (N08,E59) and 1354 (S15,E56). The Sun became active from
17/2036 to ~0430 UT with a number of CMEs. IN LASCO images these
appear to have originated from the limbs or far side; none are
expected to be geo-effective. SDO images show a filament lifting
from the south-east limb at 1646 UT. ACE data show the solar
wind was undisturbed. Wind parameters are expected to be mostly
undisturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Darwin 5 22212112
Townsville 5 12212221
Learmonth 4 21112102
Norfolk_Island 3 21101111
Camden 3 12101111
Canberra 1 11101001
Hobart 2 11201101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 1 11100000
Casey 14 44422122
Mawson 7 23212113
Davis 9 33322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0020 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 6 Quiet
20 Nov 6 Quiet
21 Nov 6 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 155
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-10, 18-23 UT.
Enhanced to 45% at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced to 40%. Near predicted monthly values 00,
04-07,22-23 UT at Darwin. No data Darwin 01-03 UT
and Townsville 00-07 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly 20-40% enhanced. No Hobart data 15-19 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly 20-40% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
20 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
21 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 79800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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