[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 17 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 18 10:29:30 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            155/109

COMMENT: Ten C-class flares with the largest a C6.0 at 0727 UT 
from region 1346 (S18,W00). A CME was observed in LASCO images 
around 2030 UT on the north-east limb. Insufficient images at 
this time to determine the path of this CME. Available ACE data 
show the solar wind was undisturbed. Wind parameters may become 
disturbed 18 Nov, if the 14 Nov CME impacts. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet. Quiet to active
levels at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21201111
      Darwin               6   21211312
      Townsville           5   21211221
      Learmonth            4   21212111
      Norfolk_Island       3   21200121
      Camden               3   -2201111
      Canberra             2   11201010
      Hobart               4   22201111
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     2   11200011
      Casey               15   44431222
      Mawson              13   33322143
      Davis               13   3432322-
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov : 
      Darwin              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1100 0010     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled 
19 Nov     6    Quiet 
20 Nov     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Possible activity 18 Nov due to CME effects, isolated 
active conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Nov   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. No data 09-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 15-25% 00-17 UT, then near predicted
      monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      At Darwin, near predicted monthly values 00-08 UT,
      then enhanced 20-40%. Enhanced 20-30% 00-08 UT, then
      enhanced 40-60% 09-17 UT at Townsville. No data at
      Townsville 18-23 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly enhanced 25-45%. Near predicted monthly values
      00-10 UT at Perth and 01-06, 15-18 UT at Learmonth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
19 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
20 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 15 November 
and is current for interval 16-18 November (SWFs) . Chance of 
SWFs on daylight sectors of HF circuits. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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