[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 16 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 17 10:29:28 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 142/96

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Eleven C-class flares from regions 1348 and 1346 (S18,E14). 
Region 1348 has now passed over the limb. LASCO and STEREO images 
show there were a number of CMEs appearing to originate from 
the north-west; none are expected to impact Earth. Available 
ACE data show the solar wind was mildly disturbed. Wind parameters 
may become disturbed, if the CME impacts, late 17 Nov, or 18 
Nov. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet. Active to
minor storm levels at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22110021
      Darwin               7   32221122
      Townsville           3   21110021
      Learmonth            4   22120021
      Norfolk_Island       3   21110111
      Camden               4   22111021
      Canberra             2   21100021
      Hobart               3   22110011
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     1   11000010
      Casey               25   46542122
      Mawson               9   43211122
      Davis               13   44322222
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov : 
      Darwin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   0032 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
18 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled 
19 Nov     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Possible activity beginning late on 17 Nov due to CME 
effects, isolated active conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Nov   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 04-13 UT. Enhanced
      to 35% at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-07 and 19-22 UT.
      Enhanced to 35% at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
      00-06, 22-23 UT, then enhanced to 45% at Darwin.
      Enhanced 20-40% at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced 20-40%. Near predicted monthly values to
      20% enhanced 00-10 UT Learmonth and Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
18 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
19 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 15 November 
and is current for interval 16-18 November (SWFs) . Chance of 
SWFs on daylight sectors of HF circuits. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    93400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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