[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 15 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 16 10:29:10 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0913UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.9    1244UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.1    2236UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 148/102

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Nov             17 Nov             18 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             150/105

COMMENT: Region 1348 (N20,W84) and region 1346 (S18,E27) appear 
to be the major sources of the M and five C-class flares. Two 
CMEs were observed in STEREO and LASCO images (one back-side, 
one north-west), neither are considered likely to impact Earth. 
The CME observed 14/~2140 UT may be geo-effective. Available 
ACE data show the solar wind slightly disturbed with the IMF 
Bz component ranging between -6/+5 nT and speed between 380 and 
440 km/s. Wind parameters may become somewhat disturbed late 
on 17, or 18 Nov if the 14 Nov CME impacts. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet. Unsettled to
minor storm periods at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11222112
      Darwin               6   22222212
      Townsville           5   11222112
      Learmonth            6   21223102
      Norfolk_Island       4   11121212
      Camden               5   12222112
      Canberra             5   11222112
      Hobart               6   12223112
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     6   11233201
      Casey               19   35522223
      Mawson              11   12332314
      Davis               16   24443223
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov : 
      Darwin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Nov     5    Quiet 
17 Nov     8    Quiet. Possible active levels late. 
18 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels possible. 

COMMENT: Possible activity beginning late on 17 Nov due to CME 
effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Nov   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
      00-10, 23 UT, otherwise 35-45% enhanced.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
      00-11, 18-23 UT. Enhanced 30-50% at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
      00-15, 22-23 UT. Enhanced 30-55% at other times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly enhanced 20-45%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 45% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
17 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
18 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 15 November 
and is current for interval 16-18 November (SWFs) . Chance of 
SWFs on daylight sectors of HF circuits. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    28000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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