[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 14 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 15 10:29:06 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 161/115

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Nov             16 Nov             17 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Only C-class flares from regions 1348 (N19,W70) and 
1347 (N09,E31) with rapid growth in region 1348. STEREO images 
show a CME between 1725 and 1909 UT erupting from the northern 
hemisphere and out of the equatorial plane. Another CME erupted 
before 2140 UT. The former CME is not likely to be geo-effective, 
while there are insufficient images at this time to determine 
the path of the latter CME. SDO images show a filament eruption 
in the north-east quadrant around 1638 UT, possibly associated 
with the first CME. There is also brightening around the same 
time as the latter CME in the south-west quadrant. Solar wind 
parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed over the forecast 
period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet. Unsettled to
active periods early at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12100001
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           2   12100011
      Learmonth            2   12110001
      Norfolk_Island       2   21100102
      Camden               1   11100011
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               1   02100001
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     0   01000000
      Casey               11   34332012
      Mawson               2   22100001
      Davis                8   24222111
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov : 
      Darwin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              0   0000 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Nov     5    Quiet 
16 Nov     5    Quiet 
17 Nov     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Nov   158

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      25% 00-07, 13-14 UT and enhancements to 45% 15-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced to 25% 00-05 UT. Enhanced to 30% 08-18 UT.
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly 20-45% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced 20-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly 20-50% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 
16 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
17 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Chance of SWFs on daylight sectors of HF circuits. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    36700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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