[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 11 issued 2327 UT on 13 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 14 10:27:27 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours.
Several C-class flares were observed today, mostly from Region
1344(S18W73). Today's largest flare was a C2.6 from region
1347(N07E55)at 0921UT. The solar wind data could be available
today only from 0000UT until around 0700UT and then from 2000UT
until the time of this report (2330UT). Solar wind speed varied
between 400 km/s and 440 km/s in the early hours and between
360 km/s and 380 km/s during the late hours of the day. The IMF
Bz data is available only for the early hours and it stayed close
to the normal value. Low levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated M-class
activity during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 5 21221112
Townsville 3 11110121
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk Island 3 21110111
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 1 01100011
Hobart 2 11110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 13 23532122
Mawson 4 32211001
Davis 7 22322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0011 1200
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Nov 5 Quiet
16 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Predominately Quiet conditions were observed over
the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days with some possibility of isolated
unsettled periods on 14 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for
the next 3 days with some possibility of minor degradations
on high latitude locations on 14 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced MUFs were observed on most
locations over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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