[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 11 issued 2327 UT on 13 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 14 10:27:27 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 155/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Nov             15 Nov             16 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours. 
Several C-class flares were observed today, mostly from Region 
1344(S18W73). Today's largest flare was a C2.6 from region 
1347(N07E55)at 0921UT. The solar wind data could be available 
today only from 0000UT until around 0700UT and then from 2000UT 
until the time of this report (2330UT). Solar wind speed varied 
between 400 km/s and 440 km/s in the early hours and between 
360 km/s and 380 km/s during the late hours of the day. The IMF 
Bz data is available only for the early hours and it stayed close
to the normal value. Low levels of solar activity may be expected 
for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated M-class 
activity during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110111
      Darwin               5   21221112
      Townsville           3   11110121
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Norfolk Island       3   21110111
      Camden               2   11110011
      Canberra             1   01100011
      Hobart               2   11110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey               13   23532122
      Mawson               4   32211001
      Davis                7   22322212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov : 
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0011 1200     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Nov     5    Quiet
16 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Predominately Quiet conditions were observed over 
the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
for the next three days with some possibility of isolated 
unsettled periods on 14 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for 
the next 3 days with some possibility of minor degradations 
on high latitude locations on 14 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Nov   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values
15 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Normal to enhanced MUFs were observed on most 
locations over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF 
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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