[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 11 issued 2350 UT on 12 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 13 10:50:21 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 169/123


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1339(N18W62) and region 1344(S19W59) produced low level 
C-class flares today- the largest being a C2.5 flare at 0750UT 
from region 1339. As previously anticipated, a weak shock was 
observed around 0518UT. This shock seems to be due to the arrival 
of the CME that was observed on 9 November. The solar wind speed 
stayed around 360 km/s until the shock arrival at 0518UT. Then 
the solar wind speed increased to around 460 km/s and stayed 
above 400 km/s for the rest of the day. The IMF Bz stayed mostly 
between +/-4nT for most parts of the day with some fluctuations 
at the shock arrival. Solar activity may be expected to be at 
Low levels with some possibility of isolated M-class event during 
the next 3 days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion 
enhancement event beginning 12/0440UT, which can be a precursor 
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11221211
      Darwin               6   22222212
      Townsville           5   12220221
      Learmonth            9   2223----
      Norfolk_Island       3   11220201
      Camden               4   11221211
      Canberra             3   11220200
      Hobart               4   11320201
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     1   00110200
      Casey               18   33552211
      Mawson               6   01332210
      Davis               11   22342321
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov : 
      Darwin              15   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0101 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov    12    Quiet to unsettled 
14 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled 
15 Nov     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Predominately Quiet conditions were observed over the 
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions may be expected 
for the next two days with mostly quiet conditions on the third 
day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Nov   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov   140    near predicted monthly values 
14 Nov   140    near predicted monthly values 
15 Nov   140    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Normal to enhanced MUFs were observed on most 
locations over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF 
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    60400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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