[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 11 issued 2350 UT on 12 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 13 10:50:21 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1339(N18W62) and region 1344(S19W59) produced low level
C-class flares today- the largest being a C2.5 flare at 0750UT
from region 1339. As previously anticipated, a weak shock was
observed around 0518UT. This shock seems to be due to the arrival
of the CME that was observed on 9 November. The solar wind speed
stayed around 360 km/s until the shock arrival at 0518UT. Then
the solar wind speed increased to around 460 km/s and stayed
above 400 km/s for the rest of the day. The IMF Bz stayed mostly
between +/-4nT for most parts of the day with some fluctuations
at the shock arrival. Solar activity may be expected to be at
Low levels with some possibility of isolated M-class event during
the next 3 days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion
enhancement event beginning 12/0440UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11221211
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 5 12220221
Learmonth 9 2223----
Norfolk_Island 3 11220201
Camden 4 11221211
Canberra 3 11220200
Hobart 4 11320201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 1 00110200
Casey 18 33552211
Mawson 6 01332210
Davis 11 22342321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0101 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 12 Quiet to unsettled
14 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled
15 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Predominately Quiet conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions may be expected
for the next two days with mostly quiet conditions on the third
day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov 140 near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 140 near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 140 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced MUFs were observed on most
locations over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 60400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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