[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 11 issued 2347 UT on 11 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 12 10:47:26 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1344(S18W45) produced a long duration C4 flare that peaked
at 0705UT. This flare was associated with a partial halo CME
with estimated plane of sky speed of 825 km/s. This CME may have
a small earthward component. Region 1339(N17W48) also produced
a C1 flare at 1231UT. The solar wind speed varied mostly between
380 and 400 km/s over the UT day with a sudden rise from 380
to 420 km/s around 0300UT. The IMF Bz fluctuated mostly between
+/-4nT during the UT day today. A possible glancing blow from
the CME activity observed on November 9 may elevate the wind
speed and density on 12 November. Solar activity may be expected
to be at Low levels with some possibility of isolated M-class
event during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 12120011
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 2 12110011
Learmonth 6 23221112
Norfolk_Island 3 12110012
Camden 3 12120011
Canberra 2 02110010
Hobart 3 12220011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 2 02120000
Casey 18 45531111
Mawson 7 23221130
Davis 14 33442132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 20 Unsettled to Minor Storm.
13 Nov 12 Unsettled to Active
14 Nov 10 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 9 November
and is current for interval 10-12 November. Predominately Quiet
conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Unsettled to
active conditions with minor storm periods at high latitudes might
occur on 12 November due to the effect of a CME that was observed
on 9 November. Conditions may be expected to return to unsettled
to active levels on 13 November. The possible effect of another
CME observed on 11 November may keep the activity levels
enhanced to unsettled levels with the possibility of isolated
active periods on 14 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for
the next 3 days with the possibility of periods of minor
depressions on high latitude locations on 12 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 125 Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced MUFs were observed on most
locations over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of
minor depressions on high latitudes on 12 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 69700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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