[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 11 issued 2347 UT on 11 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 12 10:47:26 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 174/128


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1344(S18W45) produced a long duration C4 flare that peaked 
at 0705UT. This flare was associated with a partial halo CME 
with estimated plane of sky speed of 825 km/s. This CME may have 
a small earthward component. Region 1339(N17W48) also produced 
a C1 flare at 1231UT. The solar wind speed varied mostly between 
380 and 400 km/s over the UT day with a sudden rise from 380 
to 420 km/s around 0300UT. The IMF Bz fluctuated mostly between 
+/-4nT during the UT day today. A possible glancing blow from 
the CME activity observed on November 9 may elevate the wind 
speed and density on 12 November. Solar activity may be expected 
to be at Low levels with some possibility of isolated M-class 
event during the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12120011
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           2   12110011
      Learmonth            6   23221112
      Norfolk_Island       3   12110012
      Camden               3   12120011
      Canberra             2   02110010
      Hobart               3   12220011
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     2   02120000
      Casey               18   45531111
      Mawson               7   23221130
      Davis               14   33442132
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov : 
      Darwin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0000 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov    20    Unsettled to Minor Storm. 
13 Nov    12    Unsettled to Active 
14 Nov    10    Unsettled to active 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 9 November 
and is current for interval 10-12 November. Predominately Quiet 
conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Unsettled to 
active conditions with minor storm periods at high latitudes might 
occur on 12 November due to the effect of a CME that was observed 
on 9 November. Conditions may be expected to return to unsettled 
to active levels on 13 November. The possible effect of another 
CME observed on 11 November may keep the activity levels 
enhanced to unsettled levels with the possibility of isolated 
active periods on 14 November. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for 
the next 3 days with the possibility of periods of minor 
depressions on high latitude locations on 12 November. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Nov   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Nov   125    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Nov   125    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Normal to enhanced MUFs were observed on most 
locations over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF conditions 
may be expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of 
minor depressions on high latitudes on 12 November. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    69700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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