[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 11 issued 2354 UT on 10 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 11 10:54:19 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 179/132


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Nov             12 Nov             13 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: There have been several C class flares over the last 
24 hours. The largest of these flares was a C6.0 flare from region 
1339(N19W33) at 1831UT. Solar activity is expected to be Low 
with a chance of isolated M-class flares for the next 3 days. 
The solar wind speed varied mostly between 340-400 Km/s over 
the UT day. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT with some prolonged 
southwards periods in the later half of the UT day. A possible 
glancing blow from the CME activity observed on November 9 may 
elevate the wind speed and density during the later half of November 
11 or early on 12 November.




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21110112
      Darwin               5   21211222
      Townsville           4   21111112
      Learmonth            5   21211222
      Norfolk Island       3   1--10122
      Camden               2   21100111
      Canberra             3   31000111
      Hobart               3   21110111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   10010001
      Casey               10   24322222
      Mawson              11   21112253
      Davis               10   22322242

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov : 
      Darwin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            56   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Nov    15    Quiet to Active with storm periods at high latitudes.
12 Nov    25    Unsettled to Minor Storm.
13 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 9 November 
and is current for interval 10-12 November Predominately Quiet 
conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Unsettled to 
active conditions with storm periods at high latitudes might 
occur from late on 11 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
13 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next 3 days. Possible CME effects may degrade HF conditions at 
high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Nov   139

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
12 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFS observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial and 
Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Conditions in Southern 
AUS/NZ/ Antarctic regions could be disturbed next 3 days due 
to the anticipated geomagnetic activity associated with the CME 
of November 9.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    66600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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