[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 11 issued 2330 UT on 09 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 10 10:30:23 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    1340UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 180/133

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Nov             11 Nov             12 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            175/129

COMMENT: SDO images show brightening in the vicinity of region 
1342 (N17,E42) near the time of an M1.1 flare at 1335 UT. The 
SDO images also show events ~0844 UT in the south-east quadrant 
and in the north-east quadrant ~1529 UT. CMEs are observed in 
STEREO and LASCO images around 0900 UT and 1340 UT and are likely 
to be associated with the above events. Both CMEs are expected 
to be geo-effective. ACE data show solar wind parameters were 
mostly undisturbed. Solar wind parameters are expected to be 
mostly undisturbed on 10 Nov although there may be a late increase 
in activity due to the ~1529 UT CME. Wind parameters are expected 
to remain disturbed 11 and 12 Nov due to CME effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet.

Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21110012
      Darwin              12   32------
      Townsville           2   11110011
      Learmonth            7   20------
      Norfolk_Island       2   11100012
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             1   10------
      Hobart               1   11110000
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     7   22-----2
      Casey               21   4------3
      Mawson               7   22-----2
      Davis                7   23222221
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov : 
      Darwin             103   (Major storm)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            98   (Minor storm)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2221 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Nov     8    Quiet 
11 Nov    20    Unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm levels. 
12 Nov    15    Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
11 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
12 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Nov   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced 15-25% 00-10, 23 UT. Enhanced 30-50% 11-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 15-30% 00-05 and 10-20 UT. Near predicted
      monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced 15-25% 00-14 UT, then enhanced 25-50%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
11 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
12 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Sudden ionospheric disturbances possible on daylight 
sectors of HF circuits. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 388 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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