[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 08 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 9 10:29:21 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 181/134


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
two C-class flares, the largest being a C2 from region 1339 (N19W06) 
which is gradually declining. Further C-class events are likely 
over the next 3 days, with the chance of an M-class flare. The 
solar wind speed increased gradually from ~350km/s to ~400km/s. 
Until ~16UT, IMF Bz varied from -8nT to +7nT, with some sustained 
southward excursions. Since then it has fluctuated between +/-5nT. 
A CME first observed at 07/2348 in LASCO imagery is not expected 
to be geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   33213211
      Darwin               7   32222212
      Townsville           7   --313211
      Learmonth           11   43223212
      Norfolk Island       7   22213212
      Camden               8   32313211
      Canberra             6   33212101
      Hobart               8   23313210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    12   22414400
      Casey               18   45432222
      Mawson              15   44323322
      Davis               20   44533322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            70   (Active)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0300 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov     5    Quiet
10 Nov     5    Quiet
11 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed over the 
last 24 hours, with Active to Minor Storm periods in Antarctica. 
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   125    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov   120    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov   120    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFS were observed over the last 24 hours. 
Enhanced conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    37500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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