[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 08 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 9 10:29:21 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 181/134


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
two C-class flares, the largest being a C2 from region 1339 (N19W06) 
which is gradually declining. Further C-class events are likely 
over the next 3 days, with the chance of an M-class flare. The 
solar wind speed increased gradually from ~350km/s to ~400km/s. 
Until ~16UT, IMF Bz varied from -8nT to +7nT, with some sustained 
southward excursions. Since then it has fluctuated between +/-5nT. 
A CME first observed at 07/2348 in LASCO imagery is not expected 
to be geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   33213211
      Darwin               7   32222212
      Townsville           7   --313211
      Learmonth           11   43223212
      Norfolk Island       7   22213212
      Camden               8   32313211
      Canberra             6   33212101
      Hobart               8   23313210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    12   22414400
      Casey               18   45432222
      Mawson              15   44323322
      Davis               20   44533322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            70   (Active)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0300 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov     5    Quiet
10 Nov     5    Quiet
11 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed over the 
last 24 hours, with Active to Minor Storm periods in Antarctica. 
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   125    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov   120    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov   120    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFS were observed over the last 24 hours. 
Enhanced conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    37500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list