[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 11 issued 2337 UT on 07 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 8 10:37:55 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 182/135


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            180/133

COMMENT: X-ray flux was at C-class levels today. Regions 1339(N18E05) 
and 1338(S13W12) were the source of the C-class flares. Region 
1339 still maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration. This 
region is expected to continue producing C-class flares with 
a high chance of M-class activity. Solar wind parameters were 
undisturbed over the reporting period. These parameters are expected 
to be mostly undisturbed over the forecast period.




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet with isolated Unsettled
periods.

Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21111322
      Darwin               7   22221322
      Townsville           5   21211311
      Learmonth            7   22221322
      Norfolk Island       5   31110221
      Camden               4   11111311
      Canberra             4   10000223
      Hobart               3   11201211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   01101000
      Casey                9   24321122
      Mawson               5   12221121
      Davis               10   23322232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            42   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1000 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov     5    Quiet
09 Nov     5    Quiet
10 Nov     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours with isolated Unsettled periods. Mostly Quiet conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 
the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Nov   144

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
09 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
10 Nov   125    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 6 November 
and is current for interval 7-9 November (SWFs) Enhanced MUFS 
observed for all AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
normal ionospheric support for the Antarctic region. Mostly normal 
conditions are expected for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 298 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    20000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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