[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 06 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 7 10:29:19 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0103UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M1/SN    0635UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 177/131

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Regions 1339 (N20E20) and 1338 (S14E02) produced the 
nine C-class flares with 1339 producing the two M-class flares. 
Region 1339 is now in decline although retains a complex magnetic 
configuration with the chance of X flares. No CMEs were observed. 
ACE data show solar wind parameters were undisturbed. Wind parameters 
are expected to be mostly undisturbed over the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to unsettled. 

Estimated Indices 06 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112212
      Darwin               6   22112213
      Townsville           5   21012213
      Learmonth            8   22122313
      Norfolk_Island       6   31112212
      Camden               4   11012212
      Canberra             2   00001202
      Hobart               2   01101202
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     0   00000001
      Casey               12   25322212
      Mawson               4   21112202
      Davis                8   23222222
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov : 
      Darwin              20   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2111 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov     5    Quiet 
08 Nov     5    Quiet 
09 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Nov   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-50%
      13-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-40%
      09-16 and 22-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 05 UT then
      enhanced 20-50%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly 15-35% enhanced. No Hobart data 00-20 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
08 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
09 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 6 November 
and is current for interval 7-9 November (SWFs) . Chance of sudden 
ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors of HF circuits over 
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 289 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    37300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list