[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 06 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 7 10:29:19 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0103UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M1/SN    0635UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 177/131

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Regions 1339 (N20E20) and 1338 (S14E02) produced the 
nine C-class flares with 1339 producing the two M-class flares. 
Region 1339 is now in decline although retains a complex magnetic 
configuration with the chance of X flares. No CMEs were observed. 
ACE data show solar wind parameters were undisturbed. Wind parameters 
are expected to be mostly undisturbed over the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to unsettled. 

Estimated Indices 06 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112212
      Darwin               6   22112213
      Townsville           5   21012213
      Learmonth            8   22122313
      Norfolk_Island       6   31112212
      Camden               4   11012212
      Canberra             2   00001202
      Hobart               2   01101202
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     0   00000001
      Casey               12   25322212
      Mawson               4   21112202
      Davis                8   23222222
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov : 
      Darwin              20   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2111 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov     5    Quiet 
08 Nov     5    Quiet 
09 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Nov   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-50%
      13-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-40%
      09-16 and 22-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 05 UT then
      enhanced 20-50%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly 15-35% enhanced. No Hobart data 00-20 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
08 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
09 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 6 November 
and is current for interval 7-9 November (SWFs) . Chance of sudden 
ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors of HF circuits over 
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 289 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    37300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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