[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 05 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 6 10:29:18 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.8 0335UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 1123UT possible lower European
M1.8 2038UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Three C-class flares and the three M-class flares, all
originating from region 1339 (N19E31). This region has the potential
for X flares. Three new regions 1340 (S09E61), and northern
hemisphere, eastern limb regions which both appear large at this
time in SDO images. SOHO and STEREO images show a CME around
~0100 UT which is not likely to be geo-effective. Solar wind
parameters were mostly undisturbed apart from occasional, brief,
increases in wind speed to ~450 km/s. Wind parameters are expected
to be slightly undisturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet. Isolated active
storm levels at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 12101011
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 2 12101011
Learmonth 5 22211112
Norfolk_Island 2 12100012
Camden 2 12101011
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 2 12101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 2 12111000
Casey 9 34311111
Mawson 9 33211133
Davis 11 34322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0011 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
07 Nov 5 Quiet
08 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible 6 Nov at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 35% 05-18
UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 20% 14-18
UT at Darwin and 01-13, 17-21 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced 10-25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Occasional enhancements
to 25%.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
07 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
08 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 3 November
and is current for interval 4-6 November (SWFs) . Chance of sudden
ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors of HF circuits over
forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 50900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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