[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 05 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 6 10:29:18 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.8    0335UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    1123UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.8    2038UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 172/126

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Nov             07 Nov             08 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Three C-class flares and the three M-class flares, all 
originating from region 1339 (N19E31). This region has the potential 
for X flares. Three new regions 1340 (S09E61), and northern
hemisphere, eastern limb regions which both appear large at this
time in SDO images. SOHO and STEREO images show a CME around
~0100 UT which is not likely to be geo-effective. Solar wind
parameters were mostly undisturbed apart from occasional, brief,
increases in wind speed to ~450 km/s. Wind parameters are expected
to be slightly undisturbed over the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet. Isolated active
storm levels at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 05 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12101011
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           2   12101011
      Learmonth            5   22211112
      Norfolk_Island       2   12100012
      Camden               2   12101011
      Canberra             0   01100000
      Hobart               2   12101000
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     2   12111000
      Casey                9   34311111
      Mawson               9   33211133
      Davis               11   34322222
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov : 
      Darwin              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0011 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
07 Nov     5    Quiet 
08 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible 6 Nov at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Nov   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 35% 05-18
      UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 20% 14-18
      UT at Darwin and 01-13, 17-21 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced 10-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Occasional enhancements
      to 25%.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
07 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
08 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 3 November 
and is current for interval 4-6 November (SWFs) . Chance of sudden 
ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors of HF circuits over 
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    50900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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