[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 11 issued 2328 UT on 04 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 5 10:28:44 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/-- 03/2336UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M1/SF    2040UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 164/118

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            170/124

COMMENT: Five C-class flares, along with the two M-class flares, 
both from region 1339 (N19E45). Chance of X events persists. 
The X1.9 flare from region 1339 at 03/2027UT appears to be associated 
with a strong CME that appears not to have originated from that 
region but further eastward. The CME appears as a halo in SOHO 
and STEREO B images with most of the material being ejected away 
from Earth. However, it may be geo-effective due to its fast 
speed and spread, possibly arriving as early as late 5 Nov. Another, 
weaker CME can be seen in STEREO B images ~0210 UT from the same 
vicinity. ACE solar wind parameters were undisturbed, although 
the IMF Bz component was mostly southward ranging +2 to -6 nT. 
Solar wind parameters may be slightly undisturbed if the CME 
is not geo-effective, otherwise expect disturbance late 5 Nov 
through 6 Nov. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet. Isolated active
to minor storm levels at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 04 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111112
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           4   20111122
      Learmonth            5   21221122
      Norfolk_Island       2   10110112
      Camden               2   11011012
      Canberra             0   00010001
      Hobart               2   10111002
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     2   00022001
      Casey               10   43312122
      Mawson              15   23212254
      Davis               12   23323242
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1100 0121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
06 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
07 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible next two days. A solar 
CME may be geo-effective late 5 Nov through 6 Nov. Expect storm 
conditions if this occurs. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Nov   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
      13-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
      13-16 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly 15-40% enhanced at Darwin and 15-30% enhanced
      at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced to 25%. Mostly near predicted monthly values
      at Brisbane and Norfolk Is. No Hobart data.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
06 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
07 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 3 November 
and is current for interval 4-6 November (SWFs). Chance of sudden 
ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors of HF circuits over 
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    68700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list