[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 11 issued 2333 UT on 03 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 4 10:33:26 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.5    1112UT  possible   lower  European
  X1.9    2027UT  probable   all    East Pacific/North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 160/114

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Nov             05 Nov             06 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: Seven C-class flares, the M2.5 and X1.9 flares all from 
region 1339 (N18,E57). Region 1338 (S14,E40) contributed a C3.8 
flare. Another C-class flares since the X flare. The CME associated 
with the M4.3 flare on 2 Nov is unlikely to impact Earth. No 
CME was associated with the M2.5 flare and unable to ascertain 
any CME associated with the X flare with the limited images. 
There is the possibility of X-class flares from region 1339. 
ACE solar wind parameters were undisturbed. Solar wind parameters 
may be slightly disturbed on 4 and 5 Nov due to weak coronal 
hole and possible CME (from 31 Oct) effects. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet. Quiet to
unsettled at high latitudes with some active periods. Fluctuation
seen in magnetometer data around 2027 UT. 

Estimated Indices 03 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22100111
      Darwin               5   22111212
      Townsville           3   22100121
      Learmonth            2   22000101
      Norfolk_Island       3   12100121
      Camden               3   22100121
      Canberra             1   11000011
      Hobart               2   12100110
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     0   11000000
      Casey               11   24421221
      Mawson               9   33211133
      Davis                9   33322221
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov : 
      Darwin              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   3324 3212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Nov    12    Quiet to unsettled 
05 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
06 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible next two days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Nov   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values until 13 UT then enhanced
      to 35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly enhanced to 30%. No data 18-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin MUFs were near predicted monthly values to 05
      UT then enhanced to 35% apart from enhancements to
      60% 10-14 UT. Mostly 10 to 30% enhanced at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values until around 19 UT
      then enhanced to 30%. Enhanced at Perth to 30% most of
      the time.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
      09-16 UT at Macquarie Is and Scott Base.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
05 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
06 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 3 November 
and is current for interval 4-6 November (SWFs) . Chance of sudden 
ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors of HF circuits over 
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    49200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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