[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 11 issued 2333 UT on 03 Nov 2011

Fri Nov 4 10:33:26 EST 2011

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.5    1112UT  possible   lower  European
  X1.9    2027UT  probable   all    East Pacific/North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 160/114

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Nov             05 Nov             06 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: Seven C-class flares, the M2.5 and X1.9 flares all from 
region 1339 (N18,E57). Region 1338 (S14,E40) contributed a C3.8 
flare. Another C-class flares since the X flare. The CME associated 
with the M4.3 flare on 2 Nov is unlikely to impact Earth. No 
CME was associated with the M2.5 flare and unable to ascertain 
any CME associated with the X flare with the limited images. 
There is the possibility of X-class flares from region 1339. 
ACE solar wind parameters were undisturbed. Solar wind parameters 
may be slightly disturbed on 4 and 5 Nov due to weak coronal 
hole and possible CME (from 31 Oct) effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet. Quiet to
unsettled at high latitudes with some active periods. Fluctuation
seen in magnetometer data around 2027 UT. 

Estimated Indices 03 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22100111
      Darwin               5   22111212
      Townsville           3   22100121
      Learmonth            2   22000101
      Norfolk_Island       3   12100121
      Camden               3   22100121
      Canberra             1   11000011
      Hobart               2   12100110

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     0   11000000
      Casey               11   24421221
      Mawson               9   33211133
      Davis                9   33322221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov : 
      Darwin              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   3324 3212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Nov    12    Quiet to unsettled 
05 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
06 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible next two days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Nov   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values until 13 UT then enhanced
      to 35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly enhanced to 30%. No data 18-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin MUFs were near predicted monthly values to 05
      UT then enhanced to 35% apart from enhancements to
      60% 10-14 UT. Mostly 10 to 30% enhanced at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values until around 19 UT
      then enhanced to 30%. Enhanced at Perth to 30% most of
      the time.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
      09-16 UT at Macquarie Is and Scott Base.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
05 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
06 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 3 November 
and is current for interval 4-6 November (SWFs) . Chance of sudden 
ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors of HF circuits over 
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    49200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.