[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 02 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 3 10:29:43 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.3    2201UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 154/109

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: Seven C-class flares over the period as well as the 
M flare, all from region 1339 (N19,E74). A CME was associated 
with the M flare but there are insufficient images to determine 
its trajectory at this time. ACE solar wind data show the IMF 
Bz component ranging between ~+7 to -6 nT with sustained southward 
Bz 02-18 UT. Solar wind parameters may be slightly disturbed 
over the forecast period due to weak coronal hole and possible 
CME (from 31 Oct) effects. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to active.
Isolated minor to major storm levels at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 02 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22132111
      Darwin               7   22132222
      Townsville           6   22132121
      Learmonth            7   22132212
      Norfolk_Island       6   22232111
      Camden              10   23143122
      Canberra             5   12132011
      Hobart              10   23243111
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island    25   12366310
      Casey               14   45222122
      Mawson              19   43433433
      Davis               13   33332242
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             21   4245 4332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
04 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
05 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible over next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Nov   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 20%
      01-03 and 19-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 20-40% above predicted monthly values.
      Spread F 16-18 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 
      20% 10-14, 19-21 UT at Darwin and enhancements to
      40% 08-22 UT at Townsville. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.
      Occasional depressions to 20% mostly 04-13 UT at Perth
      and Learmonth. Night spread F at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 30%.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
04 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
05 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Occasional depressions possible on 3 November. Chance of
sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on daylight sectors of HF
circuits over the forecast period. IPS HF Communications Warning
48 was issued on 31 October and is current for interval 1-3
November (SWFs).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    74200 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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