[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 11 issued 2330 UT on 01 Nov 2011

Wed Nov 2 10:30:34 EST 2011

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 139/93

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Nov             03 Nov             04 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             150/105

COMMENT: Six C-class flares with the largest a C4.7 at 2152 UT. 
Two large regions are now rounding the limb, 11338 (S13,E71) and 
11339 (N20,E85) with good flare potential. Solar wind data from 
ACE shows the IMF Bz component southward to ~-6 nT until ~0820 
UT when a small shock was observed. Thereafter wind parameters 
show a CME related event with Bz ranging between +10 to -13 nT, 
settling after about 1830 UT. Wind speed peaked around 455 km/s 
and has since declined to ~400 km/s with density still above 
normal levels. Solar wind parameters may be slightly disturbed 
beginning late 2 November due to weak coronal hole effects. There 
may also be a weak disturbance beginning late 3 November due 
to the CME reported yesterday. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to active.
Minor storm 09-12 UT. Major storm 09-12 UT at high latitudes.
Weak sudden impulse to 15 nT observed in Australian data at 0908 UT. 

Estimated Indices 01 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   22253422
      Darwin              14   22243423
      Townsville          14   22243432
      Learmonth           16   32253422
      Norfolk_Island      15   22353322
      Camden              17   22353432
      Canberra            11   12243322
      Hobart              16   22353422

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island    23   21464431
      Casey               12   33332232
      Mawson              26   34354444
      Davis               23   43363332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov : 
      Darwin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            86   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             27                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   3011 2133     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled 
03 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
04 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible on 2 November. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Nov   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 01-10 UT. Enhanced
      to 40% at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced during
      local day. Enhanced to 50% at night. Spread F 18-21 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day;
      enhanced to 40% local night at Darwin. Enhanced
      15-45% at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
      At Hobart, depressions to 20% 13-18 UT and spread F
      11-19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
03 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
04 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 31 October 
and is current for interval 1-3 November (SWFs) . Chance of sudden 
ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors of HF circuits over 
forecast period. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    34800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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