[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 11 issued 2329 UT on 31 Oct 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 1 10:29:13 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    1510UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.4    1809UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 138/92

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Nov             02 Nov             03 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: The M-class flares appear to be associated with as yet, 
unnumbered region at S17,E87. Three other new regions: N16,E18, 
N10,E54 and N15,E77. A CME, first seen in SOHO C2 images at 
1648UT, and later in STEREO A and B images, may have a weak, 
Earth-directed component which could arrive late 3 November. 
This CME appears to be related to a filament disappearance seen 
in SDO images starting around 1430UT in the vicinity of region 
11334 (N11,E13). Solar wind parameters from ACE show wind speed 
rose to ~430km/s and the IMF Bz ranged between about +7 to -9 
nT. Since about 1630UT Bz has been negative to -6nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to active.
Isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 31 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33322222
      Darwin              11   33322223
      Townsville          14   44322223
      Learmonth           11   42322223
      Norfolk_Island       7   32222122
      Camden               8   22322222
      Canberra             5   32101112
      Hobart               9   33312122
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
      Macquarie_Island     6   20223122
      Casey               18   43532233
      Mawson              20   52324252
      Davis               15   42433232
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct : 
      Darwin              15   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1001 2312     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
02 Nov     5    Quiet 
03 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Possible isolated active conditions on 1 November. Isolated 
minor storm periods at high latitudes on 1 November. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Oct   107

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
      13-20 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
      10-18 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      25% 11-21 UT at Darwin and enhanced to 25% most of
      the time at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
02 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
03 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 31 October 
and is current for interval 1-3 November (SWFs) . Chance of sudden 
ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors of HF circuits over 
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    61400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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